"Markam" is a respected fundamental analyst in Forex Factory. I'd like to refer you to this post from him...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1876232&postcount=64036

we set now at Fib 61.8%, and 4H QQE is at the 50 line trying to cross down. If we pass this level down I see no reason not to hit 210.5... and may be 209.xx before the weekend, let's see. Anyway, if the week closes below the daily Gann HiLo, I'm afraid we'll go short for very long time to come... on the other hand, if it gets rejected up from 209.xx then we may see 213.5 for the 4th time, and if it breaks through then 217... let's see (did I say that before :) )

Wednesday, 27 February 2008

I feel like I want to say: didn't I tell you that 12 hours ago!
Anyway, price is bouncing off the 1hr 200ema right now...

Good morning (or may be...)

It seems that 213 is a very strong psychological barrier to cross either way, we've been there for quite long time... now we have on the daily TF:
1. 50% is a little bit above the 213
2. 50ema is a little above that
Both these lines show very strong resistance... It seems we'll not break them easily before having large scale retracement of 200-300 pips down first.

The QQE on the daily has touched the 50 line, the retracement from here will form the other leg of the triangle, besides, the 4H QQE is close to the overbought area which suggests that we'll go down...

Having said all that, I still see massive up rockets if we have a daily candle close above the 50% fib and the 50ema. If that scenario plays, we'll have a resistance in the 213sh area every 20-30 pips, just like mines field.

I'm out watching for the time being until I see a strong sign of where the market is going...

No real chance yet for today, still waiting the retracement to get down to 211.5 sh area. Trading today has been as intersting as watching dry paint! Good luck scalpers...

Tuesday, 26 February 2008

This retrace which we expeted earlier could go down to 211.5 where the 1H 50% fib lies. A little above that we have 1H 50ema which served as good resistance in many occasions in the past. A good place to long from is between 211.5 and 211.7, if we get there! Otherwise, will long with the signals of the reversal back to long...

Closed my Longs at 212.3. Signs of reversal are increasing. But still believe the up trend is not over yet. As mentioned earlier, the retrace will be good to load more skyrockets.

The QQE 15min, 30min and 60min were in the overbought area, which sould be followed by a reversal.

Feb 25, 2008

Price is above the Daily and 4H Gann HiLo, the weekly momentum is pointing up... I can read this in one way, the trend is UP and bulls are in action. TP of my current longs is between 213 and 213.5 where the 4H 200ema is. Over the last few weeks whenever the price touched the 4H 200ema it used to retrace strongly. That retrace will be a nice opportunity to load more longs before continuing the up trend.

Mon the 24th of Feb, 2008

Mixed views as the market was consolidating most of the last week. In my viewpoint, technically we should see high levels this week and may be next week, I'll post my reasoning later here. Fundamentally, this pair could go down to the south pole... Oil prices are getting higher and higher, ==> weaker dollar. Moreover, navigating this week's calendar is just like walking in mines field, i.e. many many important financial reports and events.

This Calendar shows that we'll have an important report from the US and/or the UK everyday! I feel sorry for the traders (including myself) of GBPUSD, USDJPY and GBPJPY. A lot to be careful of. That's it for now...